Reports of Religious Right's Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

Gerald F. Seib has a piece at the Wall Street Journal which points out that reports of the demise of the Christian Right have been overstated, as evidenced by Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa. I believe his analysis is balanced and reasonable.

Here's an excerpt:

At a minimum, the Iowa results change the conventional wisdom about the power of Christian conservatives in 2008. With no obvious Christian conservative darling among the early leading candidates, the predictions of their demise as a power were widely disseminated: conservative Christians were too dispirited to get engaged, they might sit on their hands, they might even look for a third-party candidate of their own.

But what happened in Iowa was that the foot soldiers moved out on their own, without regard to where their leaders were heading. They singled out Mr. Huckabee, and turned him from after-thought to front-runner.

And so doing they have changed the character of the Republican contest from here on out. But the point is that the conservative Christian vote is important, not that it is locked up.

After last year's loss of both houses of congress, it was understandable that the media might believe the influence of the Christian voter was over. What they failed to realize was exactly the opposite (and it's the lesson the Republican Party desperately needs to learn): when both parties are full of big-spending immoral dirtbags, Christians will usually stay home, rather than vote the lesser of two evils. (Right now, apparently many in the Religious Right are fooled into thinking Huckabee isn't a big government type, but they may be in for a rude awakening if they succeed in getting him elected).

And from an AP piece at CBS4Denver, James Dobson is quoted:

Huckabee's victory "was evidence of an energized and highly motivated conservative community," Dobson said. "Not bad for a supposed bunch of demoralized, depressed, disillusioned and disengaged Reaganites."

From LifeNews.com, exit polling data points to a strong showing for the Religious Right vote in Iowa:

Previous polls show about 70-75 percent of Republican voters in Iowa take a pro-life position and Huckabee’s frequent references to his strongly pro-life views -- in the face of attacks from Mitt Romney and other candidates -- may have made the difference.

CNN exit polling showed Huckabee winning 46 percent of the evangelical voters that turned out on Thursday night while Romney only received the support of 19 percent of that segment. Those who said a candidate's religious views mattered significantly backed Huckabee 56-11 percent over Romney.

The disappointing thing:

Those voters who described themselves as “very conservative” sided with Huckabee on a 35-23 percentage point margin and Huckabee won with the largest group of Republicans who said the most important consideration was someone who shared their political values.

Why would someone who describes themselves as "very conservative" support a candidate who is conservative on a couple of issues...and liberal on most of the rest? Especially when there were much better choices out there (can you say "Duncan Hunter"?). Some of these voters may get a chance to wake up someday and want to saw off their arm, if you get my meaning.

From The Swamp comes news of statement from the anti-Christian People for the American Way:

If there were any doubts that Religious Right voters are still a powerful force in the Republican Party, Mike Huckabee’s huge win in Iowa put them to rest.

I think Christian voters are making a big, big mistake and if Huckabee does get elected, there will be a lot of "buyer's remorse" in short order next year.

Actually, from the polling breakdown, it looks like Huckabee did best with that segment of religious voter most often prone to emotional decisions and reactions (and you know who they are), than those who more often follow well-researched evidence. In other words, he may have done better with those who aren't solid conservatives, or that don't have a consistent biblical worldview.

But Huckabee would be much more palatable to Christians who are serious about their faith; while he's liberal in many areas, some Christians draw the line at supporting someone (like Giuliani) who supports abortion--after all, they see it as murder.

And for all his warped social theology, at least Huckabee's theology doesn't undermine the deity of Jesus Christ as does Mitt Romney's Mormonism--another non-starter for many serious Christians.

If this keeps up, those fears of a third party move from Christian conservatives might be laid to rest.

At least Christians are getting excited and getting out there. I wish they'd wake up a little more and get their eyes open a little more, but I guess I'll take groggy over completely asleep.