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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Scientist: Little Ice Age on the Way

From Milenio, a Mexican scientist from the National Autonomous University of Mexico says we will soon enter another "Little Ice Age" like the earth has previously seen.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera says it will last 60-80 years and will likely be a result of decreased solar activity.

The link above is to a Google-translated Spanish website and the translation doesn't hold during cutting/pasting, so here is a screen print of some other relevant things Herrera said:

Imagine that: volcanoes and solar activity affecting global temperature. Whoda thunk?


Anonymous said...


Anyone could be described as a heretic. The Mexican Victor Manuel Velasco resembles those scientists who gave them not afraid to contradict the world by insisting that the planet was not flat.

A few days ago, as if no one was listening, and the best way of Galileo Galilei when risked raised that the Earth was not the center of the universe, Velasco argued that instead of a global warming that will destroy species, poles or thawed snow and raise the level of tides, the world will live a mini-ice age, which could last between 60 and 80 years.
In other words, global warming that our planet is currently experiencing, is the preamble to the mini-ice age that could begin in 2010, the minimum temperature could be achieved in three or four decades 
more and lasts between 60 and 80 years. The transition that we are living began in 2005 and may last from 5 to 15 years and will depend on many factors. 

The hypothesis, which rejects the studies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change United Nations (IPCC by its acronym in English) and even leaves without floor to former U.S. president, Al Gore, who has travelled the world talking about the increase in temperature, not happened at any moment. It is based on a study conducted for over 6 years and consolidated with more than 10 experts from the Institute of Geophysics at the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). 

Each is based on a reduction in solar activity, which would cause a downturn in temperature. The scientist spoke with time since the Mexican capital and explained some details of his discovery. 

How does your hypothesis?

Always calculations had been made 20 years ago and based on historical data, but we developed a model theoretical physicist named Elsy with which we rebuild a climate of the last two thousand years. We see that the Earth has had periods of warming and cooling that are rotated every 80 or 100 years or so. There was an era of ice between 1615 and 1645, which froze the river Thames. There was another between 1790 and 1820, when Nevada in Europe in the middle of summer. The final was between 1890 and 1950, when we saw snow fall in Mexico.

So, we are all wrong to talk about global warming? 

The warming does exist, but according to the model that we use expiring in two years or so, when the culmination of a cycle of high temperatures and low temperatures will start one. This phenomenon has always existed, since millions of years ago, is a natural process. Just as there day and night, 
summer and winter, there is Global Warming and Global Dimming. At present, there are events that have nothing to do with global warming. It is therefore necessary to identify and stop blaming all of that phenomenon.

You put against the majority of scientists in the world, including those that make up the IPCC of the UN. Why should believe him? 

The panel forecasts are wrong because they are based only on mathematical models or computer, and do not include physical calculations. They focus solely on air pollution caused by humans, but the degree of scientific understanding of the role of the Sun on climate change as the IPCC is very low because it only considers a factor of warming but not cooling. There scandal because this phenomenon has never been seen, but has been normal since the time of the Vikings in the year 1400. 

According to reports from the IPCC, the degree of scientific understanding of the role of the Sun on climate change is very low, in fact only be considered as one of the factors warming and are not considered as a factor for cooling.
When we last had a 'scientific consensus' was at the time of 
Galileo. This was the era of obscurantism and regression of moral, ethical, cultural, scientific, technological and knowledge.
Perhaps for movies, in an era when we think we imagine the ice planet snowy ... 

We will not drown in snow, that would be an ice age that lasted thousands of years and the ice extends to low-lying areas. 
In a mini-ice age diminishes and the temperature is 
caused by variations in solar activity that produces changes in the energy the Earth receives, the various processes affect climate. 

How will notice? 

Already there are signs. In China recently Nevados after 50 years. In Buenos Aires also saw snow falling. In Durango (Mexico) were presented temperatures of 17 degrees centigrade below zero, last March. In the Alps and Canada has enneigé with much greater intensity. And at the South Pole in December, the snow spread over 16 million square kilometers, a historical record. Bogota is another example: do not forget the granizada for November.
Contrary to the increase in global temperature of 0.25 degrees for the next ten years according to the IPCC scenarios, in the mini-ice age of twenty-first century could reduce the global temperature of 0.2 to 1 terrestrial degree centigrade. The changes that occur will be different local times and may vary in their manifestation.
To get an idea must be remembered that we had low temperatures at the beginning of the year, the problem is not withstand such temperatures for a few days, but that will live with them between 40 and 80 years.
Do not concerned about facing the melting snowcaps around the world, the Himalayas and the Andes? 

In reality this loss will be compensated snow.
The melting of ice in the Northern Hemisphere is not new, 
the years 800 to 1400, which is the period known as' Medieval Warm optimism ', the Vikings of Sweden crossed the Baltic and 
settled in Slavic lands, the Vikings from Norway arrived in Iceland, and under the command of Erik Thorvaldsson (950-1001), known as Red, sailed westward from Norway and discovered a huge island which called on Danish language 'Gronland' green land.
In the summer of 2007 the area of ice in the north pole fell by 3 million square kilometres but at the same time in the south pole rose to 16 million square kilometres. However, today alarm because it has never been seen in modern life. 

A few months ago collapsed part of the Perito Moreno glacier, in the middle of winter. Is that not a sign of warming? 

No, this is a normal phenomenon that has been 21 times since 1917. That fracture occurred by a blockage in the drainage channels of Lago Argentino is located where the Perito Moreno, who leads the water to push the ice until the fracture. 

And the extinction of some species in the ecosystem, such as bears? 

Bears are not becoming extinct due to lack of ice, are eventually hunting. One of its main food is seals, which are hunted each year thousands and is about to be declared endangered. 

What would be the most sensitive areas of the world to a mini-ice age? 

Undoubtedly americas America, which is not accustomed to the temperature down. In Europe may pass unnoticed because there snow falls and people are accustomed to cold, but we do not. 
Here summers are cooler and the risk is higher for crops. 

Do you already feel the mini-ice age? 

The transition will last few years and do not feel around the world at the same time, but here in Mexico there is a volcano named Popocatepetl, which is regaining its snowy areas. When this happens in many mountains in the world we can say that the era of ice has come.
The transition to the mini-ice age will last between 5 to 15 years and not feel around the world at the same time. It could be a symptom of the fact see a glacial mountain anytime and at any time of year and detect an increase in snow. When this happens we can say that the era of ice has come. 

Which would be the best strategy to confront this era of ice? 

Develop alternative energy sources such as nuclear or solar *. 

Javier Silva Herrera 
Drafting life of TODAY

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