Barna Poll: GOP Can't Count on Evangelical Vote

George Barna and the Barna Group reveal some interesting polling numbers about values voters and evangelical voters for the upcoming election.

You might recall that margins in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 were pretty close, and that "values voters" played a critical part in the success of the Republican Party.

That critical segment that got George W. Bush over the top in 2000 and 2004 may not be there for John McCain.

From the Feb. 4 Barna report:

If the election were held today, only 45% of evangelicals say they would support the Republican nominee for president, and 11% would support the Democratic representative. Most significant is that a whopping 40% of evangelicals are undecided. This is extraordinary, given that 62% of evangelicals voted for the Republican candidate in 1992, 67% did so in 1996, along with 67% in 2000 and 85% in 2004.

"Evangelicals are clearly sending a message to Republican leaders this time around," commented Barna, a former campaign manager whose firm has conducted surveys for candidates in two presidential elections. "There is tremendous frustration among evangelical voters, in particular. Overall, 90% of them say they are interested in the presidential election, making them among the voter segments most interested in the race. Further, 98% of them say they are concerned about the moral condition of the country and 82% say they uncomfortable with the way things are going in the world. Yet, given the stands of some of the leading Republican contenders, evangelicals are registering their discomfort with the choices they have at hand."

It is beyond doubt that evangelicals and values voters in general were far more positive about George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 than they are about ANY of the current GOP candidates, especially John McCain.

If Bush, the GOP candidate, was elected with the support of evangelicals but little overall margin in the last two elections, that doesn't bode well for John McCain, who not only lacks solid conservative, pro-life, pro-family credentials, but who has sometimes gone out of his way to show his disdain for evangelicals.

McCain might fare better against Hillary Clinton as a Democrat opponent in November. After all, her negative numbers are high even among Democrats.

But McCain against the positive, fresh-faced Barak Obama? I would almost certainly expect a Democrat president in 2008 in such a matchup.

But if the GOP establishment is dead set on going with the "mainstream" media flow and nominating a liberal candidate that alienates the conservative base, then I suppose they'll just have to sleep in the bed they've made.

Here are some key terms used by the Barna Group that help understand exactly what segment of the population is being discussed:

"Born again Christians" are defined as people who said they have made a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today and who also indicated they believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they had confessed their sins and had accepted Jesus Christ as their savior. Respondents are not asked to describe themselves as "born again."

"Evangelicals" meet the born again criteria (described above) plus seven other conditions. Those include saying their faith is very important in their life today; believing they have a personal responsibility to share their religious beliefs about Christ with non-Christians; believing that Satan exists; believing that eternal salvation is possible only through grace, not works; believing that Jesus Christ lived a sinless life on earth; asserting that the Bible is accurate in all that it teaches; and describing God as the all-knowing, all-powerful, perfect deity who created the universe and still rules it today. Being classified as an evangelical is not dependent upon church attendance or the denominational affiliation of the church attended. Respondents were not asked to describe themselves as "evangelical."